Ion ȘTEFANOVICI, CAPDR: „Romania Between Acts of Force and Diplomatic Wisdom”
100 economic opportunities for the development of the Moldova Region on the A7 Highway route
The Russian Federation’s Decision to Expel Two Romanian Diplomats in April 2025 is a Predictable Episode, a Reaction to a Similar Gesture Taken by Romania in March
Such episodes are typically interpreted through the lens of “Euro-Atlantic solidarity” or “diplomatic reciprocity.” However, the geopolitical reality of 2025 is no longer akin to the post-Crimea world, and rigidity can today become a strategic mistake.
As the President of the Center for Analysis and Planning of Regional Development (CAPDR), I take responsibility for looking at things pragmatically and lucidly: Romania can no longer afford to react impulsively, based on logics that no longer serve its direct national interest.
1. The World is No Longer Bipolar. Russia is No Longer Isolated.
Despite Western sanctions, the Russian Federation has strengthened its strategic relationships with China, India, Iran, Turkey, and other emerging economies. What is happening now is no longer a confrontation between “blocks,” but a realignment of global poles of influence. Continuing to view Russia only as a threat – and nothing else – means trapping ourselves in a geopolitical prison of the past.
2. Romania, a Border State, Must Play Smart.
Romania plays a crucial role on NATO and the EU’s eastern flank. But this role must be accompanied by discernment. The expulsion of Russian diplomats – without a clear stake, without a tangible gain – is not a demonstration of strength, but of vulnerability disguised as loyalty.
We must ask ourselves honestly: what has Romania gained from this gesture? Greater security? Diplomatic influence? Expanded access to resources? Or just a headline and a reaction from Moscow that could have been avoided?
3. Romania Must Build Bridges, Not Just Maintain Walls.
I do not propose abandoning Euro-Atlantic values. On the contrary. I propose a mature foreign policy in which Romania is able to maintain communication channels, exert influence in the region, and be perceived as a voice of balance – not just as a disciplined pawn.
While Hungary, Turkey, and even Serbia maintain functional relations with Moscow, Romania increasingly seems tempted to emphasize symbolism at the expense of pragmatism. And in a fragile region, symbolism comes at a cost.
4. CAPDR Supports a Smart and Balanced Foreign Policy.
We need a Romanian school of post-crisis diplomacy, based on discernment, foresight, and national interest. CAPDR advocates for an approach in which Romania no longer reacts mechanically but thinks strategically – with one eye on the region and another on the economic and social interests of its citizens.
Security is not built only through alliances, but also through relationships. And the future of a strong Romania depends on our ability to negotiate, mediate, and build – not just execute.
Ion Ștefanovici, President of CAPDR
