Ion Ștefanovici, CAPDR: The US–China Talks in Geneva – Analysis, Understanding, and Opportunities for Romania

Geneva Provided a New Milestone in International Economic Relations. Beyond Figures and Temporary Armistices, a Strategic Reality Emerges: China Is Leveraging Its Network of Regional Partnerships to Maintain Trade Resilience

Romania and the Extended Moldova Region must intelligently redefine their own role in the global economy of the future.

1. A World on the Verge of Rebuilding the Economic Order

After three decades of hyper-globalization centered on the West and market liberalization, the world economy is undergoing a period of controlled fragmentation. Multiple crises – the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, global inflation, tensions in Taiwan and the Middle East – have exposed the fragility of value chains and the limits of absolute economic interdependence.

In this new phase, states no longer build solely on the logic of efficiency, but also on strategic resilience, autonomy, and adaptability. Words such as “reshoring,” “friend-shoring,” or “decoupling” have become the language of trade policies of the great powers.

The Geneva Tariff Truce: An Economic Breather for China, a Strategic Setback for the U.S.

Beijing did not wait for the crisis to respond. It anticipated it. Over the past 15 years, China has invested billions in developing an alternative trade, logistics, and financial network that operates even under the restrictions imposed by Washington or Brussels.

The “Belt and Road” Initiative was only the beginning. It was supplemented by trade agreements (RCEP, CAI, bilateral partnerships), investments in ports, railways, and logistics centers across dozens of countries. Today, facing the reimposition of tariffs by the US, Beijing is not surprised – but prepared.

3. Geneva 2025 – Trade Armistice or Proof of a New Reality?

The recent meeting between American and Chinese officials in Geneva offered a breather to financial markets and trade chains. For 90 days, tariffs decrease, exports resume, and inventories replenish. But beyond this armistice, the world clearly saw two opposing models:

• The US, confronted with internal consumer pressure and vulnerable to its own tariff policies.
• China, capable of circumventing sanctions through an extensive network of “regional nodes” – intermediary countries and markets that receive, transform, and re-export goods to final markets.

4. Regional Nodes – The Architecture of Trade Adaptability

China has patiently built a model of decentralized economic connectivity. Key ports such as Djibouti (Horn of Africa), Gwadar (Pakistan), Mombasa (Kenya), Colombo (Sri Lanka), Piraeus (Greece), or Duisburg (Germany) are not just logistical points, but platforms for minimal processing, packaging, certification, or re-labeling. Thus, Chinese goods can be directed to strategic markets, avoiding direct tariffs and maintaining active trade flows.

These nodes do not operate in isolation but are supported through sustainable economic partnerships, investments in local projects, and technology transfers. The model is not aggressive but inclusive – based on the idea of mutual gain and strengthening trade interdependence.

On this foundation, China has consolidated bilateral trade partnerships, investments in local infrastructure, and stable financial mechanisms, offering partner states a credible alternative to the Western economic architecture.

5. Lessons for Romania and the Extended Moldova Region

Romania is at a strategic crossroads. If it understands the dynamics of trade networks and integrates into the logic of these regional nodes, it can become a connecting actor between East and West, between the EU and the new Asian corridors.

The Port of Constanța, the Galați–Chișinău–Odesa rail corridor, industrial parks in Suceava, Iași, or Bacău, as well as the new logistics terminals in the Republic of Moldova, can be repositioned as regional commercial hubs, part of the new global architecture of economic exchanges.

At a time when the European Union is reconfiguring its external trade policies and seeking openness towards Asian markets, Romania has the chance to become an active bridge – if it knows how to capitalize on its geography, its dual membership (EU + border region), and its human capital.

6. Conclusion: A Fluid Global Context and an Invitation to Reposition

Geneva 2025 was a test of balance in a multipolar world. China has shown that it has the capacity to adapt, build alternative networks, and transform crises into opportunities. Romania, in turn, can do the same: become a connection space, a regional center for commercial, economic, and logistical dialogue.

For this, vision, inter-institutional cooperation, and openness to strategic global partnerships are needed.

About the Author

Ion Ștefanovici is the president of the Center for Analysis and Planning of Regional Development (CAPDR), coordinator of international projects in the field of external economic relations, and promoter of strategic partnerships between the Moldova Region, the Republic of Moldova, and countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Central and Eastern Europe. His work includes geopolitical analyses, regional development strategies, and participation in international economic cooperation delegations.