President of CAPDR, Ion ȘTEFANOVICI, on recession and the need for administrative reform at FERM 2025: “Administrative reform will be forced. There is no other way anymore”

President of the Center for Regional Development Analysis and Planning (CAPDR), Ion Ștefanovici, warned at the Regional Economic Forum Moldova that Romania is on the brink of a systemic recession, with profound implications not only economically, but also administratively and socially.

His speech, delivered during the Panel 3 – Moldova’s Positioning in the Romania–China Economic Partnership, brought to the forefront a harsh reality: “Decisive months lie ahead. There’s nothing left to hold on to”

“Recession is knocking – and not just for the private sector”

Ion Ștefanovici picked up a term used by a colleague from the Republic of Moldova, which he considered essential to understanding the current moment: recession.

“I’ll end with a term that the President of the Ungheni District Council had… not even the courage, but the necessary openness to use, because he fully understood it: recession. That’s the period we’re preparing to go through. Already.”

This crisis will not affect only the private sector, he emphasized, but also local public administrations – some of which are already on the verge of functional insolvency. In his view, the effects of the recession will inevitably force an administrative-territorial reform that the Romanian state has postponed for decades.

“Administrative reform will be imposed by reality”

Using a family-budget metaphor, Ion Ștefanovici illustrated just how limited decision-makers’ options will be in the coming months.

“It’s like in a family. When you don’t have money for a vacation, you don’t go. When you can’t afford to go out, you stay home. No money for fuel – you walk or ride a bike. It’s the same for us – the economic reality tells us clearly what’s coming. And the administrative-territorial reform will become inevitable.”

His speech was one of urgent responsibility. The CAPDR president called on both local and central authorities to “do their homework quickly”, warning that Romania is approaching a critical period, unprecedented in recent decades.

“The next five months are decisive. There’s nothing left to sell”

In a direct appeal to the public and policymakers, Ion Ștefanovici issued a stark warning: the coming crisis is unlike anything seen in the past three decades.

“The next five months in Romania are decisive. There haven’t been months of such importance in the past 35 years. I’m not exaggerating.”

He even drew a comparison with the 1990s, the post-communist transition period, arguing that back then “we had things to sell”. Romania managed to survive that time by liquidating the material legacy from 1945–1990 – whether companies, equipment, or infrastructure.

“We had an inheritance. A phone, a fridge, a painting – you could pawn it. Companies sold what they still had left. But now? Now there’s nothing left to hold on to.”

This lack of tangible resources in the face of an impending crisis prompted the CAPDR leader to raise a fundamental question.

“What will we do? Each as God enlightens us. And man sanctifies the place.”

A call for clarity and reform

Ion Ștefanovici’s intervention stood out through its sober yet clear tone, blending economic realism with civic responsibility. His core message: the crisis can no longer be avoided, but it can be managed if we have the courage to reform.

He did not ask for help from others, nor did he assign blame. But he did speak about the need for harsh, rapid, and well-grounded decisions, about a Romania that must break free from delays and improvisations, and about a Moldova that, if it wants to play a role in international partnerships – including with China – must first put its own house in order.